Thursday, August 02, 2007

Grand Theft Auto Delayed

GTA4, it has just been announced, will be delayed until Q2 2008, missing the "Murderer's Row 2" window that is this christmas' shopping season.

If you play theSimexchange (or better yet, have some money IRL to invest in Ubisoft) now would probably be a good time to get behind Assassins Creed, as they've just become the main open-world/sand-box game of the year.

I expect this news to work heavily in our favor.

Update: Analysts, it would seem, at least partially agree. I haven't seen any specific guidance on Ubisoft as a result of this delay but several have gone on record as saying EA should benefit.

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4 Comments:

Blogger The Zombie said...

I hope you are correct, Ben. The delay should also benefit Haze, which looks like serious fun. As for Ubi stock, one should consider that US stocks are in the midst of a meltdown caused by the financials. Unfortunately, it will most likely spill over into the Euro markets. The beauty of Video Games is that they are such great value in any economic environment. How else can one get many months of a high level of entertainment for just $60? I hope Ubi will hold up well in this downdraft. With the lineup Ubi has on the way, I'm confident the dips will be bought quickly. If Ubi is successful in finding a partner to enter the China online game market, the stock will be platinum.

10:21 AM  
Blogger The Zombie said...

Wow. This morning Ubi was down 10% at one point.
I would have bought that dip had my broker been open for international trades. This whole mortgage panic is getting ridiculous.
I hope someone here was able to buy that dip in Ubi.

11:48 AM  
Blogger Ben Mattes said...

The Zombie,

Have you seen this yet (http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=6759&Itemid=2).

Starting early this week Ubi shares started to dip a little but the announcement that EA had increased its voting power to 25% was the cause of the major drop you saw this morning.

Honestly I don't know what to make of it. Given that EA's stock is currently doing well and that analysts' response to their recent restructuring and plan for increased original IP has been very favorable, I would have thought that the fact they now had more influence with Ubi would have helped our share value.

Additionally the fact that EA's voting rights are now at nearly 25% is not unforseen -- it could have been predicted by anyone with stock in Ubisoft because the same doubling of voting power per share holds true for all holders. It makes me wonder who is doing the selling after this recent news -- likely not the institutional investors...

12:50 PM  
Blogger The Zombie said...

Thanks for the post, Ben. For the record I haven't sold a single share of Ubi. I agree with you 100% on the EA issue. It was expected--they did not buy additional shares.
People panic too easily.
A couple of things are going on here.
Hedge funds which got caught up in the mortgage mess are being forced to liquidate their positions (if they can-we saw what France did). This caused panic because people think it will continue to unravel and spread into the prime market. One thing I know about stocks is that traders hate uncertainty. Individual traders are dumping everything they own with reckless abandon (these idiots cannot be considered investors). All this noise is artificially bringing down quality companies with great management like Apple and Ubisoft. It irks me because I own both. It is also creating a fantastic buying opportunity. I'm waiting with cash ready to pounce when I feel the panic is over. It could take a few more weeks to flush out all the chickens. We don't want them owning Ubi anyway. If EA is in a good position, Ubi is in a fantastic position. With GTA4 delayed, Haze and Creed will make more logical substitutes than anything EA has coming out. When we dig out of the wreckage, Ubisoft will be in the hands of much stronger investors--and with AC, Haze, Endwar, Conviction and your next game, the best is yet to come. Update: I see we are already down another 6% this morning. More panic is in store today.

9:06 AM  

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